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Usually ships in 7-11 business days | | | A day at the races, with its colorful variety and fast-paced action, appeals to people from all walks of life. Not surprisingly, the idea of going home with a few more dollars than when one arrived is part of horseracing's charm. In this entertaining but substantive volume, two distinguished economists, who happen to be horseracing buffs, outline a tested strategy for placing bets that will increase the reader's chances of a happy outcome at the track. The authors are the first to point out that getting rich at the racetrack is unlikely. They do maintain, however, that with attention to their systematic approach, the racing fan can achieve the best possible chance at winning. In the process, the reader learns some of the most important measurement techniques in the social sciences, as well as the basic methods of market analysis. | | | |
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| | Product Details | | Author: | Peter Asch | | Paperback: | 206 pages | | Publisher: | Praeger Paperback | | Publication Date: | October 30, 1991 | | ISBN: | 0275941035 | | Package Length: | 8.9 inches | | Package Width: | 6.0 inches | | Package Height: | 0.8 inches | | Package Weight: | 0.7 pounds | | Average Customer Rating: |  based on 2 reviews |
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 This is a syndicated column I wrote about this book May 02, 2008
How to Pick a Kentucky Derby Winner
When your sitting back
In your rose pink Cadillac
Making bets on Kentucky Derby Day
-Rolling Stones
As the son of a son of a gambler, people ask me for betting advice.
Although I started going to race track before I was able to walk, I don't know that much about the horse industry. I go the track a few times a year and bet small amounts.
Most of my equine knowledge was gleamed when I worked on the clean up crew at the Kentucky Horse Park. I can tell you what horses make the biggest mess.
Although there are people more qualified to give Derby tips, like political or financial commentators, I won't let lack of expertise stop me.
I came to the conclusion in the mid 1980's that I wanted to live my life in Kentucky, I needed to know how to bet on horses.
I found a book called Racetrack Betting: The Professors' Guide to Strategies by Peter Asch and Richard E. Quandi.
It was written by two statistics professors and not the easiest book to read. I can sum up the advice in two statements.
1. Bet on the horse that everyone else is betting on. 2. Bet on the horse to show, not to win or place.
The book bases the ability to pick horses on a theory known as the wisdom of crowds.
The wisdom of crowds concept is really popular now. It is a driving force for web sites like Google.
The idea is that marketplace will move towards the best outcome.
If a horse moves from 10 to 1 to 2 to 1, it is probably a good horse to bet on.
Betting to show is a practice that I follow religiously. .
The professors said that betting to show will produce a winner 52% of the time. That is better than any other kind of bet.
The professors hate jackpots like the Pick-6. Just like the lottery, big odds draw a lot of excitement and attention.
Just like the lottery, you don't see many people winning them.
The professors frown on exactas, daily doubles or any bet that exhibits large risk.
Like in the investment world, the winner at race track is the person with a conservative style and discipline.
When I go to the track, I don't look at the racing form, jockeys, past history or pick horses with funny names. (My mother was a sucker for horses with funny names.) I just follow the odds.
I usually win enough money to pay for lunch.
My father, a professional gambler, absolutely HATED my betting system. He and I would go to Keeneland every session and we never picked the same horse. He would bet $100 on a horse and lose. I would bet $10 and win.
It drove him absolutely crazy.
Dad liked the excitement of big odds and big payoffs. He knew everything about the horse's past performance, their breeding and who was riding them.
Dad was superstitious and started to believe that my system was jinxing him. If dad ever met the professors, he would have punched them in the nose.
I stuck to my system. I stick to it today. Betting to show fits with my overall philosophy about investing. Slow and steady works in the financial markets and works at the track too.
For whatever reason, my system has failed me at Kentucky Derby's. The last one I remember winning was Sunday Silence in 1989. I didn't pick Sunday Silence because of my system. His owner, Arthur Hancock III, had graduated from Vanderbilt and I had received a Masters Degree from Vandy the year before.
I picked the horse because of an alumni connection to a man I had never met. It was a stupid reason for picking a horse but produced one of my few winners.
Thus, on Derby Day, my advice is forget all the high powered systems and give it your best guess.
Don McNay is the author of Son of a Son of a Gambler: Winners, Losers and What To Do When You Win The Lottery. He is the Chairman of the Board for McNay Settlement Group in Richmond, Kentucky. You can write to him at [...] or read his award winning column at [...]
10 of 11 found the following review helpful:
 Technical analysis of horse gambling. It is worth reading. Jul 09, 2004
I am glad to be the first one to write a review about this book. I am also astonished to be the first one to write a review about a book that was written over 10 years ago with an Amazon.com Sales Rank of over 300,000.
First of all, it is a well-written book. The authors have tried their very best to explain complicated ideas (topics about statistics and probabilities) step by step, and take the readers through simple calculations on probability first and then systematically to regression analysis and then ultimately to their findings. I have not touched any topics on probabilities and statistics for a long time since 1991 but I can still manage to understand the ideas and formulas presented in this book with the help of the authors.
The gist of this book is to tell us betting inefficiencies happen in Place and Show pools. Based on the authors' findings, one should pay attention to the drop of win odds from morning line odds to last-minute odds and bet on Place or Show of horses with relatively low win odds so as to yield a positive rate of return. The author's approach is also supported by the Dr. Z's system.
This book also emphasizes that the most important thing on horse gambling is to gain a positive rate of return, rather than merely picking winners. I totally agree with it.
"Profitable systems cannot be popular. Popular systems are sure losers." is also emphasized in this book. I totally agree with this statement also as the use of an originally profitable method by too many people will ultimately depress the odds and result in a negative rate of return. This is all about market efficiencies which we studied in Economics lessons before. Right?
Using terms of Economics, this book is about "technical analysis" of horse gambling. I recommend all horse racing fans who have read many books on "fundamental analysis" of horse handicapping/gambling to read this "technical analysis" book.
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